Propagation de K7RA – December 2, 2016

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QST de W1AW
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 49 ARLP049
From Tad Cook, K7RA
Seattle, WA December 2, 2016
To all radio amateurs

 

SWS Geomagnetic Disturbance Warning 16/53 issued at 2301 UTC/01 December 2016 by the Australian Space Forecast Centre.

A small coronal hole will move into a geoeffective position around 4 Dec. This could result in brief active to minor storm periods from late 3 Dec or early 4 Dec.

Increased geomagnetic activity expected due to coronal hole high speed wind stream from 03 to 04 December 2016

GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY FORECAST

03 Dec: Quiet, with possible minor storm late in the day.
04 Dec: Active to Minor Storm

Average daily sunspot numbers rose from 28.7 in the previous seven days to 32.9 in this past reporting week, November 24 to 30.

Average daily solar flux rose from 78.5 to 82.6. Geomagnetic indicators increased only slightly, with average planetary A index changing from 12.7 to 13.6, and average mid-latitude A index rising from 10.1 to 10.3.

Predicted solar flux is 85 on December 2 to 4, 80 on December 5 and 6, 78 on December 7 to 11, 80 on December 12 and 13, 82 on December 14 and 15, 80 on December 16 and 17, 78 on December 18 and 19, 80 on December 20 to 22, 82 on December 23 and 24, 84 on December 25, 83 on December 26 and 27, 80 on December 28 and 29, 82 on December 30 and 31, 80 on January 1 and 2, 78 on January 3 to 7, 80 on January 8 and 9 and 82 on January 10 and 11.

Predicted planetary A index is 5 on December 2 and 3, then 10, 8 and 5 on December 4 to 6, then 15, 12, 18, 20 and 10 on December 7 to 11, 5 on December 12 to 17, then 8, 12, 16 and 22 on December 18 to 21, then 30, 12 and 10 on December 22 to 24, 8 on December 25 to 27, 5 on December 28 to January 2, then 15, 12, 18, 20 and 10 on January 3 to 7, then 5 on January 8 to 13.

Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period December 2 to 28, 2016 from Petr Kolman, OK1MGW of the Czech Propagation Interest Group.

Geomagnetic field will be:

  • Quiet on December 2 to 5, 13 to 16, 27 and 28
  • Mostly quiet on December 6, 12, 17, and 26
  • Quiet to unsettled on December 11, 18 and 19, 23 to 25
  • Quiet to active on December 7 to 10, 20
  • Active to disturbed on December 21 and 22

Increased solar wind from coronal holes are expected on December 7 to 10, 17 to 23.

Reliability of predictions is reduced at present due to higher sunspot activity.

Here is an interesting chart from England’s Daily Mail, comparing solar cycles: http://dailym.ai/2gNNtwq

The blue line represents an average of all previous solar cycles, from cycle 1 to cycle 23. The red line is the current cycle 24, and the grey line is solar cycle 5, which may be similar to the current cycle.

For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals.

For an explanation of the numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere.

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation.

More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/.

Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation.

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins.

Sunspot numbers for November 24 through 30 were 12, 12, 13, 31, 44, 43, and 75, with a mean of 32.9. 10.7 cm flux was 79, 80.9, 81.2, 82.6, 85.2, 85.5, and 83.6, with a mean of 82.6. Estimated planetary A indices were 24, 33, 12, 10, 8, 5, and 3, with a mean of 13.6. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 17, 24, 9, 9, 7, 4, and 2, with a mean of 10.3.

NNNN
/EX

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